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few isolated individuals laid the foundations on which the next generation would explode so spectacularly into view. This last contributor was Nicolaus Copernicus. It was Copernicus s insight that rationalized the structure of the universe. When Copernicus (more properly Niclas Kopernik, but he has become universally known by his Latinized name) was born in the Polish town of Thorn (now Torun) in 1473, there was no doubt about how the universe was put together. It was just as Aristotle and Ptolemy had imagined it so long before. At the centre of everything was the Earth. Round this rotated the moon, the sun and the planets, all contained by the great circuit of the stars. Each of these levels was held in place by immense crystal spheres. Forgetting for a moment these unlikely spheres, it made a sort of sense. It didn t take a genius to see that the celestial bodies, including the sun, revolved around the Earth: you only had to watch the skies. Concepts like sunrise and sunset were deeply embedded in human culture. But Copernicus was not prepared to fall in meekly with the accepted wisdom of the day. Copernicus seemed incapable of sticking to a single subject while at university. In fact he showed distinct enthusiasm for remaining an eternal student. After four years at the University of Krakow studying liberal arts he didn t get a degree but instead moved on to Bologna to study canon law. In Bologna he lived at the house of a maths professor, Domenico Maria de Novara, whose enthusiasm for hands-on science soon began to rub off on

(Don t Just Set It and Forget It)

Thus the initial sample weights are redistributed evenly among all household members at wave t. By excluding newborns in the denominator, this effectively means that the total weight of a household with a newborn rises, as the new child inherits the average weight of the other household members. Population gains due to birth are thus adequately reflected by the weights. This linkage function is treated by Taylor and Buck (1994) for British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Equal household share. Consider again individuals j 2 Ut 1 and k 2 Ut where k lives in household h at time t. Furthermore let Hh be the number of different households at wave t 1 that contained individuals who can now be found in household h. And let Cjh be the number of persons who lived together with individual j at time t 1 and can now be found in household h. 8 < : 1 Hh Cjh 0 if individual j also lives in household h otherwise:

something that is not scienti cally possible to estimate It gives people misleading precision that could lead to the buildup of positions It lulls people to sleep All that because there are nancial stakes involved To know the VAR you need the probabilities of events To get the probabilities right you need to forecast volatility and correlations I spent close to a decade and a half trying to guess volatility, the volatility of volatility, and correlations, and I sometimes shiver at the mere remembrance of my past miscalculations Wounds from correlation matrices are still sore Fine, but what about the claim that VaR is nonetheless an improvement over the mathless past Rubbish, offered Taleb: That s completely wrong It s not better than what you had because you are relying on something with false con dence and running larger positions than you would have otherwise.

In addition, the while statement will be used to extract the record in the login table, which has the account number and the password specified by a customer. The if statement will be used to validate the account number and the password.

You re worse off relying on misleading information than on not having any information at all If you give a pilot an altimeter that is sometimes defective he will crash the plane Give him nothing and he will look out the window Technology is only safe if it is awless A lot of people reduce their anxiety when they see numbers Before VAR, we looked at positions and understood them using what I call a nonparametric method After VAR, all we see is numbers, numbers that depend on strong assumptions I d much rather see the details of the position itself rather than some numbers that are supposed to re ect its risks.

m 1/2

Taleb was also among the rst to draw serious attention towards the destabilizing powers of VaR, and what can happen when a lot of players choose to follow mechanical trading rules (such as having to liquidate positions if VaR limits get breached) and when a lot of other players are fully aware of such choices VAR players are all dynamic hedgers and need to revise their portfolios at different levels As such they can make very uncorrelated markets become very correlated VAR is a school for sitting ducks Find me a dynamic hedger who is a reluctant liquidator and I will front-run him to near-bankruptcy In other words, if the nancial industry were to (as it did do) widely adopt VaR, there would be a danger that everyone would have to liquidate stuff at the same time, taking different markets down concurrently.

1 Bn (0; t) 1

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